NEWSWEEK, NOVEMBER 22, 1971
INDIA PAKISTAN-PEACE OR WAR?
The Washington consensus on whether the border fighting between India and Pakistan will explode into war puts the odds at “better than 50:50” for all-out conflict.
Even the calendar looks ominous. The monsoons have ended and snow (which could keep Pakistan’s Chinese allies from lending a hand) starts in mid-December. The timetable, U.S. experts say, is right for fighting in West Pakistan where most of the Pakistani Army is based.
The military outlook favors India, even if all of Delhi’s claims do not prove out. The dramatic call-up of 700,000 reserves last week, for instance, will probably produce only 50.0(H) combat-ready men. Nonetheless. India’s army outnumbers Pakistan’s by 3 to I. and its air force-a failure in the 1965 fighting-is both larger and far better equipped. The Indian fly Soviet attack bombers and MIG-21s; Pakistan has obsolete U.S.F-86 jets and Chinese-built MIG-19s. Moreover Pakistan has only enough supplies for a month’s fighting.
What hope there is rests on last-minute diplomatic moves. President Yahya told the U.S. he would pull back his forces-unilaterally-and meet with the outlawed Bengali government and its political arm, the Awami League. India, however, insists it will not retreat until the Pakistan civil war ends, with the refugee flood stopped. Jailed Bengali leader Mujib freed and East Pakistan given some form of autonomy.