“We offer our sympathy to the thousands of people who were helpless victims of the flash flooding of vast areas of the city. We are certain that some at least of their suffering could have been alleviated if our weather forecasters had not been miles off their mark in their predictions.”
NOVEMBER 27, 1976
A few thundershowers indeed!
IN THIS CENTENARY YEAR OF THE INDIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, we find it difficult to share the official enthusiasm of the Indian weathercocks crowing about their achievements. The IMD’s Director-General three days ago talked of a “percentage improvement” in the accuracy of Indian weather forecasts but this claim does not make scientific sense in the absence of absolute figures on the correctness of predictions. A weather forecast from the Madras Meteorological office, received by us towards 9 p.m. on Tuesday evening, read as follows: “Cloudy, with a few showers or thundershowers towards evening”. And it was said to be valid until Thursday morning. By the time people were reading the forecast in the newspaper on Wednesday morning the city was already being lashed by the fury of heavy showers. And the whole of Wednesday turned out to be a nightmare of torrential rain totalling 45 cms (18 inches) in 24 hours – the heaviest downpour since the beginning of this century! We offer our sympathy to the thousands of people who were helpless victims of the flash flooding of vast areas of the city. We are certain that some at least of their suffering could have been alleviated if our weather forecasters had not been miles off their mark in their predictions. The Municipal Corporation, the Electricity Department, and the officials entrusted with the task of watching the levels of rising rivers and lakes could have been better equipped to face the crisis than they were had there been a reliable early warning.
The Madras forecasters’ failure in their interpretation of the deep depression was total, if they are to be judged by the conclusion they came to on a severe cyclone hitting the coast near Cuddalore.
Writing in THE HINDU some time ago, the Regional Director of the IMD in Madras said: “From the pattern of echoes on the radar screen, it is generally possible to locate the clear area or ‘eye’ at the centre of a storm and by continuous observation the course of movement of the storm can be inferred…. By keeping a continuous watch of the cyclonic storm as seen on the radar scope, a forecaster can provide the public a running commentary of the movements of the cyclone hour to hour”. Cyclone warning radars with a range of 400 kms. exist in Madras, Bombay, Calcutta, Visakhapatnam and Paradeep. If technical equipment was not lacking and was in working order, an alert approach has surely been non-existent. How else can we, in turn, interprete the weather-interpreters’ conclusions? People were anxiously switching on their radios to hear the latest news about what the weather was in store for them and such broadcasts as were made were only repeating the already outdated forecasts made several hours earlier. They had nothing else to go by.
Having predicted a severe cyclone was it not the duty of the meteorological officials to give an “hour to hour” commentary on its movements, departing from their rigid schedules of the usual twice-a-day forecasts so that the radio at least could be up-to-date with the information? In the critical hours of Wednesday, when heavy rainfall was threatening the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, the Hyderabad Met. Office seems to have been much closer to the developments than Madras which has more sophisticated weather-watch apparatus.
The weathermen also erred in their long term forecast for this season because the organisers of the final New Zealand India cricket Test match, who had consulted them, had been promised” fair days in Madras during the latter part of November.
The Meteorological Department is busy with its centenary fete, which included the inauguration yesterday of a new multi-storeyed building for it in New Delhi. It is talking of adding new sophisticated equipment to improve the data collection work of the vast organisation. It is also to have the benefit of better communication facilities with its counterpart agencies in other countries and access to more and better cloud pattern analysis pictures from satellites. When will all these be coming? But even if they come soon, they will add up to nought if the ability to coordinate, analyse, interpret, and broadcast information does not improve substantially. Some months ago, a conference of astrologers in Poona decided to set up an “observatory” to issue short and medium range weather forecasts. Nothing more has been heard of this organisation or of any of its bulletins. But the recent performance of the meterological experts does not seem to be of a much higher level than the guesswork which the Poona group may have indulged in.
Reference:
The First 100
A Selection of Editorials, 1878-1978, THE HINDU, VOLUME I