Too small mercies before the monsoon
The Economist | 19th June 1971
Too small mercies came to the east Pakistani refugees this week. The cholera epidemic, which according to official Indian figures caused 3,000 deaths in the camps by June 6th, now seems to have levelled off. The situation is still serious; in the Burdwan district of West Bengal there are reports of a fresh outbreak. But the cholera vaccine and saline solution, which last week was pilling up at Calcutta airport, now seems to getting to where it is needed. In addition to voluntary aid—where the British charities in particular have made a great effort—international assistance through the United Nations now amounts to about $40 million in cash and kind, though this is only enough to keep the refugees for a month. The American government have given $10 million worth of food, leaving as the main priorities roofing material against the monsoon and transport to move supplies.
The other small mercy is that the flow of refugees from East Pakistan seems to have tailed off from the peak of 150,000 a day at the beginning of the month. The bad sanitization on which the cholera bacillus thrives was largely attributable to overcrowding in refugee camps. Whether the flow has been reduced because the Pakistani army us curbing its attacks on Hindus or because it is simply blocking the border is difficult to judge. Reports of increased patrols on the border suggest that it may be the latter.
On Monday General Tikka Khan, the military governor of East Pakistan, claimed that 15,000 East Pakistani refugees had returned and were now in the 21 special reception centers set up inside East Pakistan. But reports from the Indian border suggest that the number is very much smaller. Many of those who have returned are non-Bengali Muslims who fled when the Bangla Desh forces briefly had the upper hand in East Pakistan. It is unlikely that many were Hindus.
On Monday the United Nations Commission for Refugees announced that, after President Yahya and a visit to East Pakistan, a United Nations representative is to be stationed in Dacca who will pay periodic visits to these reception centers. Another UN representative in Dacca is to make sure that International Aid in East Pakistan, which will doubtless be distributed by the army, reaches “the people for whom it is intended.” Obviously, a lot will depend on how vigilant these UN representatives are. But it is a minor triumph to get them accepted in Dacca at all. Prince Sadruddin annoyed Bengalis in Calcutta by declaring himself optimistic about relief efforts in East Pakistan. But the situation would have given more cause for gloom if UN representatives had got no further than West Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad.
There still remains the problem of dispersing to less crowded parts of India those refugees who do not want to return. Even with special trains and American and Russian planes, the number that can be moved still falls short of the number that can be moved still falls short of the number of refugees flowing from East Bengal. And the problem is not confined to West Bengal, where most of the refugees are. The smaller numbers in Assam and Tripura pose a major problem of transport. The current plans are to rehouse 1.5 million people in large camps in the borderstates and to move some 800,000 to Bihar, Maddhy Pradesh, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh. But this may be only a dispersal of the problem. Bihar, for instance, has trouble in feeding its normal population.
President Yahya’s statement on the transfer of power to civilian authorities, which he has promised for the near future and which might encourage the refugees to return, has still to come. It now seems that it will not be made for another fortnight because the president it preoccupied with a meeting of Pakistan’s economic council and discussions with the country’s five provincial governors. But president Yahya will probably want to delay his announcement to the last moment before the World Bank’s aid-to-Pakistan consortium meets next month, in order to win over as many Awami League members as possible. If he has no success, the consortium will probably postpone its July meeting; this will effectively put off the arrival of any new aid.
Unicoded by Tusher Mondal