War threats recede
From Four Special Correspondent, The Prime Minister’ decision to go abroad at a time when the war-hysteria in Pakistan backed by a menacing massing of troops on India’s borders, has reached a del000iOrious pitch could not have been taken without a cool assessment of the possibility of a showdown during the period she will be away. After her broadcast yesterday evening, there cannot be any question of postponement of the trip which means that, in the Government’s assessment, whatever mischief Pakistan may have up its sleeve, it is not going to spring that on India in the next three weeks.
On what specific considerations the Government has come to this conclusion. It is difficult to say. Maybe, as the Defence Minister has said, Pakistan is slowly returning to its seenses because India has geared up its defence preparations. General Yahya Khan appeared to be a chastened dictator when he in an interview with the correspondent of “Le Monde”, wondered how Pakistan could think of attacking India, a country five times bigger and much more powerful than Pakistan. He had not reckoned with this fact when he launched the massacre in Bangladesh to drive out millions of destitutes to warp the economic, political and social fabric of India. Nor did he remember it when he deployed his troops on India’s borders and unleashed a hate campaign in West Pakistan against India.
There may be other reasons also why India thinks a war is not imminent. A war will not be of India’s seeking; the restraint that the Government has shown in the last seven months despite the insidious aggression in the shape of evacuee influx and the open violation of Indian territory by Pakistan troops is ample proof of its determination not to be provoked. If a war breaks out in this subcontinent, that will be foisted by Pakistan.
But Pakistan realises that just as the war will be its own doing, so will it be its undoing also. It will not gamble with its existence till it is sure of adequate external assistances that will enable it to measure its strength with India of the three Powers which are in a position to provide Pakistan with this massive prop. China has suddenly withdrawn itself within its shell after some initial friendly noise.
Peking is perhaps too busy with its own internal affairs to get involved in the “internal affair” of Pakistan. After the Indo-Soviet treaty of friendship, the Soviet Union cannot go to the aid of Pakistan in a conflict with India.
The Republican regime in the USA has staked, its future on President Nixon’s coming visit to China. It cannot brook any development in this region which may come in the way of the Nixon mission to Peking. It is quite on the cards that President Nixon will try to persuade Mrs. Gandhi to agree to measures which he things will reduce tension in the area and prevent a conflagration. Whether he will succeed is a different matter. But he is in need of a respite so that he may make an attempt. His influence over Pakistan is, without doubt, being exercised in favour of a pause.
However, the need for vigilance remains. For the ways of a desperate dictator are always unpredictable.
The alert, from both the sides, is today on a full wartime basis and Mrs. Gandhi is leaving the country in the full understanding of India’s preparedness to lecat back any Pakistani attack. She and her seniormost colleagues in the Defence Ministry have left nothing to chance. All the three armed services are hundred per cent ready for any eventuality.
It is not known how far the USA and USSR have succeeded, in restraining President Yahya Khan and his Generals. Because even in the face of such political pressures, the Pakistani administration thought it fit to observe a “Crush India” Day today.
The fact that the Pak Military administration has allowed demonstrations today in front of the Soviet Embassy in Pakistan, goes to show Pakistan has no more confidence in the Soviet Union.
Recently, the USA too has strongly advised Pakistan against a war against India. The American Embassy here has been pretty well active during the last fortnight.
But India defence circles hold that India cannot relax its alertness even for a moment because Pakistan is anxious to launch a surprise attack against India and it would sunit that country’s purpose to create a false sevse of lull for the time being.
According to certain reports, Pakistan was about to launch an attack early in the second week of this month, but that it was faulked by India preparedness.
An unconfirmed report say that some of the top-ranking leaders of the Bangladesh Government have visited the Indian Capital recently. Persons close to the Prime Minister had talks with them and were said to have advised them restraint.
Indian Foreign Affairs circles point out that excellent arrangements have been made for instant communication with the Prime Minister abroad at any moment of emergency (like war). The assistance of the Government of the countries she will visit and that of the Indian missions in those countries will be available for contact with Mrs. Gandhi any moment.
Meanwhile, in discussions with her Cabinet colleagues, Mrs. Gandhi has left all possible instructions and directions for any step to meet aggression from Pakistan. This is, perhaps the reason why she can leave the country at such a grave moment.
Reference: Hindustan Standard 23.10.1971