Indian Ocean: Battlefield for Dominance

BY Shahzad Masood Roomi

 

War of dominance over Indian Ocean & Asian ‘High Seas’ and its impact on Pakistan’s maritime interests. A comparative analysis of Pakistan Navy’s operational readiness against traditional and emerging maritime threats

 

“Whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean would be a prominent player on the international scene. This ocean is the key to the seven seas in the twenty-first century; the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters”

— US Navy strategist Rear Admiral Alfred Thayus Mahan (1840-1914)

 

“Whosoever can hold the sea has command of everything.”

— Themistocles (524 – 460 B.C.)

 

21^st century is Asia’s century. Not in economic terms only, as Asia has been playing a key role in global economy since last two decades, but more in geo-political and geo-strategic terms. Asia is center stage of global politics making it most dynamic strategic and military zone in the world.US took the role of sole super power and set following strategic objectives for next century to consolidate her control.

1. Defending of Israel with religious fervor and zeal at any cost.

 

2. Capturing and controlling energy resources dotted across the Africa, Gulf and Central Asia.

 

3. Capturing and controlling strategic trade and energy corridors; both on land and sea to exploit the captured energy resources and to expand trade markets including weapons.

 

4. Destruction of political model of Islam by defacing it as a violent philosophy.

 

5. Encirclement of China.

 

6. Encirclement of Russia.

It seems little over stretched idea or a biased analysis of regional geopolitics but even examining the abridgement of American wars in Asia after 9/11 vindicates the US intent to pursue these grand strategy objectives. Using terrorism and war on terror as frontage US actually established military footprint in strategic nerve points across Asia. Middle East, East Asia, Southeast Asia and Central Asia along with all land and sea trade and energy corridors are areas of interest for US.

All these foreign policy objectives are actually different phases of one large scheme of asserting US control over whole Eurasian region with Africa and Oceania regions acting as peripheries. Eurasian equation has two major components, First Europe and Atlantic Ocean and Asia and Indian Ocean. With the inception of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949, European part of Eurasian equation was solved. Soviet empire was a major impendence in US designs which was eradicated in 1991.

Accomplishment of her foreign policy goals has become a complex undertaking for US due emergence of strong economies in Asia with divergent interests. This economic growth has been transformed now into investment in respective militaries by every growing economy; China, Japan, South Korea, Gulf States and India are most apparent examples. Traditional rivalries like China-Japan, India-Pakistan, China-US over Taiwan, US invasion in Afghanistan and Iraq, India-China, and rift between both Korean states have reshaped the Asian security architecture for the 21^st century where arm races, increased defense budgets and a desire of ubiquitous military presence in Indian Ocean by major players are dominate trends.

Entire US scheme of asserting itself in whole Eurasia and consequent conflicts revolve around littoral nations of Indian Ocean. The strategic seaports dotted across Asia are going to play a decisive role in coming years due to their multipurpose nature. These ports include Gawadar (Pakistan), Chennai (Madras; India), Colombo (Sri Lanka), Jakarta (Indonesia), Kolkata (Calcutta; India), Mumbai (Bombay; India), Richards Bay (South Africa) and Karachi (Pakistan). Some of these ports are critical choking points for international sea line of communications and others are gateways to the land locked regions.       

So, the idea of controlling Eurasia intrinsically includes Indian Ocean and geography of its littoral nations as areas of interest for US. Without controlling Indian Ocean, it would remain impossible for any power to held Africa and Oceanic regions in her sway as well. Africa is another very important region for global players due to its vast energy resources and minerals and a conflict of interests between China and US is already visible in this region both are desperate to cultivate political, economic and military interests from this region. US have expanded its strategy of asserting control by igniting wars to the coastline of Somalia behind the façade of anti terrorism and anti-piracy missions.

Apart from strategic significance, economically Indian Ocean is full of natural resources making it a natural attraction for not only US but for regional players as well. Large reserves of hydrocarbons are being tapped in the offshore areas of Saudi Arabia, Iran, India, and Western Australia. An estimated 40% of the world’s offshore oil production comes from the Indian Ocean. This ocean is the super highway for trading oil and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) from Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula –a region with world’s 45% of total energy resources –across the world. Protecting these sea lanes is another factor contributing rise of regional naval powers, particularly Indian and China two countries whose energy needs depend on these sea lanes.

• Trading sea lanes of Indian Ocean and switching monsoon

Indian Ocean includes all of the major seas in the region; Andaman Sea, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Great Australian Bight, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, Mozambique Channel, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Strait of Malacca, and other tributary water bodies. Indian Ocean is a 68.556 million sq km Body of water between Africa, the Southern Ocean, Asia, and Australia with a coastline stretching to 66,526 km in total share by all littoral nations.

Global powers have been scuffling against each other to control Indian Ocean since last 30 years. Russian wanted to climb down to Arabian Sea in search of warm waters and now US/NATO want climb up from South to secure vast energy resources in Central Asia. After demise of Soviet Union, the emergence of China as next big economic and military might has posed serious challenges to US dominance particularly when former is bogged down in two losing and protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with a thinning economy back at home.

Economically, US already dependent on China but in military sphere lingering expeditions by United States provided China with an opportunity to modernize its military machine including its Navy. According to an estimate by American military analyst Robert D. Kaplan, within next 15 years, Chinese Navy would be operating more submarines than US Navy operates today. Likewise, in military aviation, China is leading the world with most number of fighter jet projects running concurrently by any nation. Right now, China is working on a broad array of fighter jet models ranging from basic 4th generation fighters to advanced 5th generation stealth bomber fighters. But this emergence of China as a major power player must not be construed as the end of US dominance. Despite economic strains and military humiliation in Iraq and Afghanistan, US is determined to achieve its strategic goals by waging dirty wars using its political and diplomatic apparatus. Newly formed alliance with India, to counterweight China, is yet another embodiment of this undertaking. Apart from China, India has emerged as another important regional player with global ambitions and now is enhancing her power projection capabilities in Indian Ocean.

Currently, Indian Navy is world’s fifth largest naval force but it would take 3rd position, after China and US, within next 15 years. This is most disturbing part from Pakistan’s maritime security point of view. Pakistan and India would never be at peace with each other particularly with issues like Kashmir and Water has been lurking around to be solved since last 64 years. Newly found Indo-US strategic partnership is already haunting Pakistan’s security interests as US is providing India with state of the art weapons systems. On another axis, both RAW and CIA are working covertly on a plan of independent Baluchistan to capture all critical Gawadar port and its related trade and energy corridors towards Afghanistan and Central Asia. It is Pakistan’s security dilemma that Indian rivalry and US “partnership” both are hurting Pakistan.

At the end of first decade of 21st century, it is evident that contest for controlling Indian Ocean and Asian ‘High Seas’ has been instigated already. With emergence of new stakeholders in the region the game is going to be more sinister and complex.  Strategic understanding of Indian Ocean is critical to analyze this multifaceted, ambitious and intrigues thrash-about.

 

The Contest, the Players & the Arena

 

The geography of Indian Ocean and littoral states can be categorized strategically into five major categories. Whosoever would control these strategically important geographic locations would have all trading sea lanes under his control.

• Strategic water access ways and choking Points: connecting two seas through natural or artificial water bodies and the points where international trade can be blocked due to constricted width of seaways. There are four crucial access waterways facilitating international maritime trade, these are the Suez Canal in Egypt, Bab-el-Mandeb, Straits of Hormuz, and Straits of Malacca.

• Multi-purpose strategic ports: These ports serve for civilian and military purposes both. Dual purpose ports are vital national assets Karachi port in Pakistan, Mumbai in India, Hambantota in Sri Lanka are some of the examples.

• International sea lines of communications: Sea lanes for trade of oil and LNG from Persian Gulf to US, China and India lie under this category.

• Land based trade corridors connected to coastlines: Land trading routes connecting land locked regions to international coastline. Ports of Gawadar and Charbahar are perhaps only two ports in the entire region who serve the purpose of multipurpose seaports. Gawadar is closet seaport for Central Asian region through Gawadar –Chaman and Gawadar –Torkhum corridors and for Western China through Gawadar –Khunjrab corridor.

• Strategic Islands: Islands with naval installations with capability to interrupt maritime trade of any other nation. These include Socotra near HOA (Horn of Africa), Diago Garcia at heart of Indian Ocean South of India, Adaman and Nicobar in Bay of Bengal, Dhalak in Red Sea and state of Sri Lanka.

The whole struggle for controlling Indian Ocean revolves around these strategically important geographic vortexes. So they have become innately critical to US, China and India are three major naval forces in the Indian Ocean with ambitious designs.

At present, US Navy is the only blue water navy operational backed by US political force operationally divided into various US Naval fleets each responsible for a specific Ocean or region. To capture above mentioned strategically important geographic points, US is using CIA created ghost of terrorism to write the pretexts under which US military is expanding its areas of interests across the Indian Ocean.

“Unleash terrorism in a country and then go there to clean the mess!” is undeclared US policy tactics in 21^st century and have worked perfectly in in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia allowing expansion of US military footprint. Lastest of the series is the way US has used the excuse of Somali pirates to capture all important Socotra island strategically located at the opening of Gulf of Aden. Fullfledge military bases, both airforce and naval, would be establsihed there.

• Socotra Island, Yemen – New house of US Navy and airforce in Arabian Sea

US navy has already its presence in Gulf of Aden, Red sea and Persian Gulf.  Newly built naval and air force bases on Socotra island would US to keep an eye on northern Arabian sea and Somalian pennisula at same time. Coming towards south, in Indian Ocean, Diago Garcia support base which was established in 1970s was converted into a complete US airforce operational base, in 2002, with B-52 and B-2 Spirit stealth bombers on it.

• US Navy and air Force installations on Diago Garcia

This strategic move by US military to have operational base in heart of Indian Ocean has enabled US airforce to launch bombardment missions anywhere in Asia. This base was used extensively durring US invasion in Iraq in 2003.  Apart from that, this base provides US Navy an unchallenged grip over Indian Ocean.

Towards the East, strategically important Malacca strait is controlled and managed by US navy as well. The strait is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking major Asian economies such as India, China, Japan and South Korea. It is interesting how US mounted pressure on Malaysia to allow US maritime presence in strait to protect against threats of terrorism and piracy despite the fact that no evidenace of these terrorists and pirates were found in the strait. Another noticeable fact here is, US announced Malacca Strait as a maritime danger zone two years after an attack on a US navy destroyer, named USS Cole, in Gulf of Aden located thousands of miles away from strait of Malacca.

In East Asian region, US navy and air force have permanent bases in Japan and South Korea since 1940s and 1950s with more than 60,000 US troops deployed permanently. These bases provide US military with opportunity to monitor the Pacific rim of Indian Ocean and to keep Chinese maritime developments under a constant check. This region is critical for US as part of its policy of encircling China. Taiwan Strait is a potential war theratre in South China Sea. US is supporting Taiwan’s government with latest weapon systems but at same time vows to support “One China” policy adopted by communist party of China. US military bases and

• US Bases on Okinawa island in Pacific near China and protest by Japanese against these bases

training camps exist on strategic Japanese island of Okinawa since World War II. Despite svere protests and demands of Japanese public, US is not willing to close all of its facilities on the island. Peoples Liberation Army Navy of China (PLAN) conduct counter intelligence missions in vicinity of the island on regular basis as well. In April 2010, Japanese authorities notified the detection of tens of Chinese intelligence gathering ships and submarines near Okinawa.

Moving towards Southeast Asia, Iran and Pakistan are two countries sharing the coastline of extreme strategic importance to US policy goals in the region. Only Pakistan and Iranian ports are one that connects Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf to Central Asia, China and even to Europe through land road/rail links. Gawadar is actually the port which connects Eurasia to Indian Ocean through Arabian Sea. US/NATO, India and Israel all want Gawadar, hence whole Baluchistan, to secede from Pakistan in order to prevent Chinese access to Arabian Sea and to secure the most reliable and shortest corridor for US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Chinese Navy is desperately looking for a friendly naval base. US Navy already has exercised amphibious landing on Makran coastline in Baluchistan. Apart from it, In September 2009, Pakistani media was buzzed with stories of a potential base for 200 US marines at Gharo, Sindh. This conflict of interests have triggered a full blown dirty war in Baluchistan encompassing terrorism, ethnic violence and lingustic hatred as some of its main tactics. This is most sinister aspect of global grate game!

Adjacent to Gawadar, Iranian Navy pertols on of the most critical choking points of World Oil trade; Strait of Hurmoz. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, an average of about 15 tankers carrying 16.5 to 17 million barrels of crude oil normally pass through the strait every day, making it one of the world’s most strategically important choke points. This represents 40% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments, and 20% of all world shipments. Despite operating a brown water navy in a costal defense role, Iran can erupt global oil trade due to its control over Strait of Hurmoz. Securing this important choking point is natural strategic aim of US.

US military might is suffering economic backlash of protracted war on terror forcing it to adobt new tactics to expand its maritime footprint in and around Persian gulf and Arabian Sea.

In Arabian sea, US along with 26 other countries has established Combined Military Force (CMF) to counter threats of Somali pirates in Arabian Sea. This force is further divided into 3 task forces each assigned to fight against terrorism, piracy and human trafiking. This arrangement has allowed US Navy to quietly expand its maritime area of interests to all the seaports and coastline belonging to respective littoral nations. Question remains that why US is not helping its “allies” to built their own naval capabilities to deter these threats of terrorism and piracy according to their own maritime strategic vision and priorities instead of including their naval assets to these task forces?

Now US navy has unlimited and unristricted surveillance of seaports, naval bases and sea lanes in the region. Pakistan’s Gawadar port and Makran coastline is extremely vital for China and Pakistan.  Here American interests are in head on collision with Pakistani and Chinese interests but amazingly Pakistan is still a partner in CMF working mainly under US navy 5^th fleet.

Summerizing all this manevurings by US, it is clear that US is desprately working of capturing all major strategic geographic points in Indian Ocean to assert itself and to block Chinese Dragon from entering into Indian Ocean. US maritime strategy in context of securing important maritime strategic geographic locations can be summerzie as under;

• US Naval force projection capabilities and force repositioning gruantee that it can block any trade route if necessary and it can force other countries like Iran to open a blocked water lane in case of hostalities.

• US Navy is getting all regional navies combined under CMF expanding naval espionage and intelligence gathering to entire Arabian sea coastline. It is also pressing to establish its footprint on strategically located seaports like Makran.

• All major choking points in and around Indian Ocean, other than Strait of Hurmoz, are controlled by US Navy.

• US Navy already had bases on strategic islands in Indian Ocean it is going to expand them on other islands in future as well.

• Finally, US is encircling Eurasia. It established militray bases on both sides of Atlantic and Pacific, after World War II; two Ocean encompass whole Eurasia from West and East. Now US is advancing from South to North in the region by asserting herself in Indian Ocean as well.

Another very important geographic aspect of this US war for Eurasia is the way it is affecting social fabric of Muslim nations dotted across the Indian Ocean coastline. Whole Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan and African Muslims nations like Somalia, Sudan and Bangaladesh are in eye of the storm due to covert intrigues of CIA and Mossad. US policy of securing its interests in the region by redrawing Middle East revolve around the presence of fear monster of terrorism which is a brain child of CIA. The covert US agency’s Special Activity Division (SAD) has created its assets in the region, particularly in Pakistan’s tribal belt of FATA, to wrek hovac so that US can later use this “Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism” as an excuse to invade more Muslim lands. Stunningly, whole Middle East and AF-Pak region is in turmoil eversince US invaded Afghanistan. Now it is established fact that invasions in Afghanistan and Iraq were precursor of igniting sectarian wars across Muslim heartland so that Greater Middle East can be redrawn. On the other hand, political philosphy of Islam (i.e system of Khilafah) has been destorted and devastated by these US sponsered assets like Al-Qaeda and TTP.

After US, China is second major power player in Indian Ocean having highest stakes. Pakistani military establishment and China are aware of US/NATO game plan Makran coastline and are working closely once again on Gawadar port, control of which once again has been given to back to Chinese recently. In order to secure its oil supplies from Persian Gulf, China is embacked on a strategy of building ports in countries with warm diplomatic relations. In this regard, China has built number of seaports along the Asian coastline; Gawadar, Hambentota, Chittagong, Coco islands in Maldeves and a port in Maynmmar (Burma).

• Chinese Sea Line of Communication through Malacca Strait

There is a real possibility that in future China use these ports as naval bases away from Chinese shores to force projection in Indian Ocean and declaring its navy as a “Blue Water Navy”. But right now, Taiwan is more important issue for China. All major Chinese Naval installations are cocentrated along the Taiwan Strait. Certainly China cannot leave the ports she built away from home ungaurded. US is navigating in troubled waters of East China sea and Pacific projecting its force and support for independent Taiwan. Not only this but US is also supporting India to build its Naval strength to deter its Chinese counterpart. Major rivilary between US and China began with an incident On 27 October 1994, When USS Kitty Hawk, a USN aircraft carrier, while on routine patrol in the  international waters off the Yellow Sea collided with a Chinese Han class nuclear submarine. In response the United States dispatched an S-3 Viking antisubmarine patrol aircraft to screen the movements of the Han class submarine. China meanwhile had earlier ordered two F-6 fighter jets to tail and monitor the S-3. As the tension at sea built-up an American attaché in Beijing was informed by the Chinese that China will take all necessary measures to defend its air and maritime space from being violated. This incident signaled China’s intention to operate its navy in the high seas beyond its coastal waters – an area that has traditionally considered preserved by the Americans.

Apart from Taiwan problem,  the dependece of Chinese SLOC on Malacca Strait is a big potential threat. Despite having world’s second largest economy, China is dependent on imported raw material and oil. Strait of Malacce is the most critical choking point in Indian Ocean and unfortunately for China this is biggest potential single point of failure for Chinese oil supplies which literally run the Chinese economic engine. Mokhzani Zubir and Mohd Nizam Basiron at ‘Centre for Maritime Security & Diplomacy Malysia’ described Chinese sensitivity about Strait of Malacca in these words;

“Given its importance to China’s economic survival it comes as no surprise when Beijing indicated that it is prepared to protect the shipping routes which are important to China’s economy. This is bolstered by China’s statement that China has strategic interest in these important sea routes and would use its naval might to ensure that these sea lanes remain open. Zhao Yuncheng, an expert from China’s Institute of Contemporary International Relations went even further and suggested that whoever controls the Straits of Malacca and the Indian Ocean could threaten China’s oil supply route. His conclusions were echoed by President Hu Jiantao who said that the “Malacca-dilemma” is the key to China’s energy security. Hu hinted that several powers (the US included) has tried to enlarge their scope of influence in the Straits of Malacca by controlling or attempting to control navigation in the Straits of Malacca.”

Due to these problems, China is compelled to have a two oceans navies and this is where China is heading to. Chinese Navy, backed by massive economy, is on its way to become second largest navy in the world.

Despite building an array of seaports along coastline of friendly littoral nations, Chinese SLOCs remains vurenable at the moment and Chinese Navy is not in a position to assert itself in Indian Ocean or even in Arabian Sea where Indian Navy along with its US counterpart is holding control. This has forced China to declare its ports away from home to be declared as civilian and commercial only.

India is third major player in Indian Ocean. With a large Navy and ambitious aspirations, India is expanding her footprint not only in Indian Ocean but also looking towards Pacific as part of her “Look East” strategy.

After 9/11, India became biggest strategic partner of US and now both are working closely to deter Chinese threat but Indians have their own maritime gameplan which confines not only to Indian Ocean but encompasses Pacific as well. US would never like India to be that capable but rightnow they have a common interest in Indian Ocean and in the region. Contraction of its naval force, despite being global super power, is disturbing for US military. Surface fleet of US navy is depliting while Chinses and Indian Navies are expanding. To make for this loss, US has devised a regional strategy of forging maritime alliances with friendly countries as part of its foreign policy. Resultantly, military cooperation between India and US has increased manifold since 9/11 and navy is not an exception in this regard.

Indian ambitions of becoming a global power are nothing new. Post 9/11 geo-political and geostrategic milieu provided conducible environment to India to pursue her global aspirations. Becoming a two ocean navy is a declared motto of Indian naval forces. Indian Navy is going to become world’s 3^rd navy from world’s 5^th one. Right now Indian Navy comprises on following strength;

In 2004, Indian Navy adopted new aggressive doctrine and following areas were identified as priorities for Indian Navy in 21st century.

• Controlling the choke points, significant islands and trade routes in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and in the Bay of Bengal.

• Inclusion of Persian Gulf and Strait of Malacca as legitimate area of interest for first quarter of 21st century.

• Transforming Indian navy into a three-dimensional blue water force, having the potential to undertake significant assignments and roles “on the surface, underwater, and in the air”.

Just like US maritime strategy for Indian Ocean, Indian doctrine also focus on acquiring capability of choking trade by naval blockade of sea lanes for China and Pakistan in Arabian Sea. For Indians, Chinese built seaports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Maldives are major concerns despite repeated Chinese assurances that China has no intent to expand its maritime presence in Arabian Sea. Indian military strategists named these Chinese bases as “String of Pearls” and declared it an attempt by China to encircle India.

Though Chinese built ports in friendly countries including Pakistan have the potential to affect balance of power in Indian Ocean between China and India but right now Indian fear sounds more like a far cry from reality. India is inflating Chinese threat out of proportion so that newer and latest weapons can be acquired from US and West to break the Chinese string of pearls with the help of Indian Naval metal chain; a term devised by some Indian experts for Andamen Nicobar Command (ANC) and Indian bases on Nicobar and Andamen islands in Bay of Bengal. Existing strength of 3000 troops has been increased to a division level force of 15000 troops. Most significant modification was to extending the existing airstrip so that Indian Air force Su-30MKI fighter jet can land on these islands.

• “String of Pearls” – Chinese built ports in Indian Ocean along with Nicobar & Andaman islands

In the East, in Bay of Bengal, Indian navy’s main target is to deter Chinese investment on seaports built in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar by having the capacity to choke Chinese oil trade. Apart from that Indian navy is eying to operate in Pacific for that it needs massive power projection capability. This goal is further signified by ambitious program of building aircraft carriers locally. ANC is going to play a major role in achieving these goals.

On the Western theatre, in Arabian Sea, Indian naval ambitions have expanded farther from Pakistan. Indian navy, even now has a massive power projection capability vis-à-vis its Pakistani equivalent due to massive gap in qualitative and numerical terms. Middle East, particularly Persian Gulf and Africa are among Indian navy’s long term ambitions. Indian Navy has already established its electronic monitoring and listening stations Madgascar and Maldives, deep into Indian Ocean, far from Indian costal precincts.

 Interestingly, Israelis are also navigating through turbulent waters of Indian Ocean and their presence in Arabian Sea along with Iranian and Pakistani maritime borders have been confirmed now. Israel established a secret logistics naval base on a strategic island of Dahalak, Eretria, with US funding, close to Bab e Mandel in Red Sea. Here Israeli Dolphin Class submarines and Corvettes get supplies while entering into Arabian Sea where at least one Dolphin class submarine, armed with Jerricho and Popye Turbo nuclear tipped cruise missiles, maintain her presence. This base was established after a secret agreement by Israeli and Eritrean government in 1995.  From this island, no single vessel can traverse Red Sea and Arabian Sea remaining undetected by Israelis. This base proves that HOA is also included into area of interest.

Involvement of all these major actors along with regional countries, the swath of Indian Ocean is a maritime arena where these players are busy in making new alliances and strategic repositioning of their naval assets along with building new capabilities. Understanding all these facets of this struggle is important for putting Pakistani maritime defenses and future threat assessment in a perspective.

Balance of Naval Powers in Indian Ocean in context of Pakistan’s Naval defenses

In context of ongoing struggle for controlling Eurasia after redrawing Middle East, including Pakistan, the entire South Asian region has fallen apart into two camps with conflicting security interests. On is onboard with US war on terror, a US recipe to expand her military footprint and push her grand objectives. Other group of nations wants to bring this US expansion in the region to a halt. China, Iran and North Korea do not want US presence in the region and in Indian Ocean with power projection capability to undermine their interests while on the other hand Gulf countries and Pakistan are partners of US maritime task forces working under US navy 5^th fleet.

USA

Though due to protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, US Navy is decreasing in number but increasing its effectiveness and lethality by incorporating latest state of the art systems. At the end of Cold War US Navy had a surface fleet strength of 600 ships which declined to 350 in Clinton administration and now has decreased further to 289 ships. It is still a formidable force as it has 3,700 aircraft at its disposal across the globe.

Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and Red sea are monotired by US Navy’s 5th fleet which was reactivated in 1995 after a hibernation of 48 years making USN at three ocean navy. It consists of two air craft carrier strike groups along with number of destroyers, attack submarines, amphibious landing ships and numbers of auxiliray ships with its headquarter in Manama, Bahrain. US Navy 5^th fleet comprises on various task forces each responsible for dedicated tasks.

• CVN -75, USS Harry S. Truman. Part of USN 5th Fleet

• 1 x Forward Deployed Carrier Strike Group ( having 2 aircraft carriers)
• 1 x Expeditionary Strike Group (haiving multiple amphibious land platforms)
• Task Force 52, mining/demining force
• Task Force 53, Logistics Force/Sealift Logistics Command Central, Military Sealift Command (MSC replenishment ships plus USN MH-53E Sea Stallion helicopters and C-130 Hercules, C-9 Skytrain II and/or C-40 Clipper aircraft)
• Task Force 54, (dual-hatted as Task Force 74) Submarine Force
• Task Force 55, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Constellation Carrier Strike Force; June 2003: mine clearing force, including elements from the S. Navy Marine Mammal Program
• Task Force 56, Navy Expeditionary Combat Command
• Task Force 57, (dual-hatted as Task Force 72) Patrol and Reconnaissance Force (P-3 and EP-3 Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft)
• Task Force 58, Maritime Surveillance Force (Northern Persian Gulf)
• Task Force 59, Expeditionary Force/Contingency Force (when required)

Below given map explains that 5^th fleet has a very small area of responsibility.

• AOR of US Navy 5^th fleet includes Red Sea, Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea and territory of 25 countries in Southeast Asia and Middle East.

China

Chinese Navy (PLAN) is the largest naval force in Asia but quality of surface and sub surface fleet remains a crucial problem of Chinese Navy’s efficacy. Chinese Naval technology traditionally relied on Russian origin. China is just entering into modern warfare. Some of its home grown surface fleet ships proven their seaworthiness in Gulf of Aden where they sustained their operations for more than 120 days without any support from nearby bases. But it would certainly going to take a while befor China could have a real force projection capability particualry, in the field of aircraft carriers an area where even Indian navy is superiror than Chinese in terms of quality, quantity and experience. Currently Chinese Naval strength is as under;

Strength

Force Size : 255,000

Surface Force

• Destroyer: 26
• Frigate: 49
• Large landing Ship: 27
• Medium landing Ship: 31
• Fast attack craft: 200+

Submarine

• SSBN: 3
• SSN: 5~7
• SSK: 56

Naval Aviation

• Manpower: 26,000
• Aircraft: 400~500

PLAN recently started to induct advanced jetfighter. China is talking to Russians for supplies of SU-33 ship borne fighters for Chinese air craft carrier which is under constrcution right now.

To strenghten its naval defenses in South China Sea, Chinese navy has built a naval submarine base on Hinanian island capable of housing 20 submarines at a time. Chinese Type 093 Han Class and Type 094 Jin Class billistic missile submarines belonging to Northern Fleet of PLAN have enabled it to project considerable power in the Pacific. But limited number of these submarines is a problem for PLAN but it would not remain so in coming decade and constrcution of Hainanian base is yet another indication of Chinese resolve of becoming a true blue water navy.

• Chinese Billistic Missle Submarine

IRAN

Iranian Navy’s strength lies in its fleet of 13 submarines which also include Russian Kilo class disel powered submarines. Despite suffering from major economic and military scanctions from US after 1979’s Islamic revolution in Iran, Iranian Navy revised its strcture in 1990s and adopt many new plateform of Russian, Chinese and Noth Korean origin.Right now, Iranian Navy has a limited power projection capability in Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. According to latest news from Press TV Iran, country is going to start an assembly line for home grown submarines. This is a significant development as Iran would be first country in Gulf to have such an assembly line.

 

• Gulf of Oman and Kilo Class submarine of Iranian Navy

INDIA

Indian Navy executed new doctrine immediately. New naval facilities were built on both Eastern and Western shores. Indian passion of fighting a two theater war against China and Pakistan is evident in its maritime strategic planning as well. Indian Navy has undertaken a very robust strategy for building power projection capabilities. This includes

1. Establishing new Naval bases on home and foreign coastal line

2. Acquiring latest surface and sub surface weapon systems
3. Enhancing local ship / submarine building capabilities

4. Bilateral / Multilateral naval exercises to enhance operational readiness

First phase of this doctrine was completed in 2005 with the construction of a new larger naval base INS Kadamba at Karwar in Karnataka. This port was envisioned in 1980 but was adopted only in 1999 under the project Seabird. This project was initiated to separate Indian naval bases from its commercial ports. Apart from this, major naval bases of Indian navy exist in Mumbai, Vishakhapatnam and Kochi. Visakhapatnam can provide berths for fifty vessels alone.

As Indian Naval ambitions are stretched to entire swath of Indian Ocean from HOA to Pacific rim of the Indian Ocean, in South China Sea. Indian navy is acquiring aircraft carrier, nuclear submarines, Anti ship missiles, amphibious landing docks and  ship mounted theatre defense Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems to project power as region’s only expeditionary naval force. Indian target is to get three aircraft carriers operational till 2020.

Indian navy already operates an aircraft carrier INS Viraat which received a major upgrade in 2006 when Israeli Barak Anti Missile System was installed. Supplementing this would be 44,500 tons INS Vikramaditya, ex-Russian Admiril Gorshkov aircraft carrier, with a capacity to house 16 state of the art Mig-29K ship borne fighters for carrying out strike and anti-ship missions. Currently, Indian Naval’s air arm depends on British Sea Harrier jets, which are getting old now. Mig-29K are latest variant in the family and would be a tremendous boost in Indian Navy’s aviation arm with its 1650 KM combat radius, Kh-31 and Kh-35 anti-ship and anti radar missiles. By 2018, Indian navy is expected to operate its home built 40,000 tons aircraft carrier which would house 12 MIG-29K fighters for strike missions. This would be followed by a third aircraft carrier project in 50,000 tons class fitted with catapult while earlier models have been envisaged with STOBAR (Short take off barrier-arrested design).

 

• INS Vikramaditya undergoing massive refit in Russia along with Russian MIG-29K

Along with its multiple carrier operating ambitions, Indian navy also has a very robust submarine programs which includes acquisition of both conventional and nuclear powered attack submarines. Unlike China and US, Indian naval fleet has no ballistic missile submarine with it but nuclear powered conventional submarine capability has been acquired with the help of Russian assistance. Indian navy is going to operate Russian nuclear powered submarine Akula-II on a 10 years lease which would be commissioned in Indian Navy as INS Chakra. Indian crew was trained, at St. Petersburg in 2008, to operate nuclear powered submarines. This training helped Indian Navy in its own nuclear submarine project, Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV), which has been secretively since 1980s.  First ship with name INS Arihant has been launched in 2009. Interestingly, the symbolic launch ceremony was held on 26^th July the day Indian army celebrates as “victory” in Kargil war 1999. This symbolic gesture indicates the intentions of Indian navy regarding future area of deployment of these subs. Second Arihant class boat is under construction right now at Shipbuilding Centre (SBC), Visakhapatnam.

In conventional submarine arena, Indian Naval strength lies on 10 Russian build Kilo class sub marines. These boats are armed with Klub anti-ship missiles and are considered as one of the quietest subs in the world due its double hull architecture. Apart from that, German Type 209 submarines are also part of Indian Navy. To maintain a modern submarine fleet, Indian Navy is in process of inducting 6 French Scorpene attack submarines and another follow up order of 6 will follow the induction of 6 more conventional attack submarines. India would acquire latest variant of Exocet anti-ship missiles along with Scorpene submarines.

• Kilo Class submarine and Klub anti-ship missile

Just like its sub surface fleet, Indian navy is going to induct latest surface combatants in the fleet. Guided Missile Destroyers and frigates armed with BrahMos cruise missiles are mainstay of Indian Naval surface fleet. With help of Russia, India has acquired the capabilities to produce 6000-8000 tons destroyers locally. Russian firm Severnoye Design Bureau helped India to build Dehli class destroyers equipped with surface to air missile system like Barak-1 , Anti-ship missiles like Kh-35 (Range:130 Km) and SET-65E; anti-submarine, active & passive homing torpedo. Apart from existing destroyers, Indian Navy has a plan to build 8 new stealth guided missile Kalkuta Class Destroyers under program P-15A. First ship was launched in 2006. Primary design goal of this new class of destroyers is to enhance the land attack capabilities of Indian Navy with enhanced area defense role against any aerial attack with 48 Barak-8 and 32 Barak-1 SAMs. Each destroyer would have 16 BrahMos cruise missile launcher.

n  Indian Navy’s Sea King ASW helicopter launching  Sea Eagle ASHM

Indian Naval build up also includes acquiring air borne surveillance, maritime patrol, anti submarine warfare (ASW) platforms. Right now, Indian Naval aviation is using Russian origin patrol aircrafts and anti submarine helicopters but it is going to be changed in near future. Most significant upgrade in Indian Naval aviation would be induction of Boeing P-8I Poseidon multipurpose maritime patrol platform. This induction would bring Indian maritime surveillance and anti submarine capabilities on par with USN owing to the fact that it is US Navy’s next generation maritime surveillance platform. For strike missions, Indian Navy already has a large fleet of Tu-22M, SEPECAT Jaguar, Sukhoi SU-30 MKI and newly inducted MIG-29K. Jaguars’s Sea Eagle missiles are to be replaced with more lethal Harpoon missiles. In the anti-submarine role the Sea King, Ka-28 and the domestic built HAL Dhruv are used.

After strengthening its surface, sub surface fleets and naval aviation arm, next aim of Indian Navy is to transform into an expeditionary naval force. For this purpose, Indian Navy acquired 16,900 tons Landing Platform Dock (LPD) from US in 2007 which was commissioned as INS Jalashva. Acquisition of second platform is under consideration while 4 more amphibious landing ships would be acquired from Russia. These platforms would enable Indian Navy marine force to land and capture other nation’s coastline areas in a naval expedition.

• INS Jalashva, Indian LPD acquired from US

Analyzing this expedition ambition leaves little doubt about the real intentions of Indian Navy. Indian cannot launch an expedition mission in South China Sea while all major islands in Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal are already under Indian or US control so naturally it leaves sea shores of Pakistan as potential target of Indian build up. Furthermore, Indian maritime war preparations are in complete sync with similar aggressive drive of modernization in Indian army and air force under grand Cold Start strategy, specifically devised against Pakistan.

Pakistan army and air force have taken number of responsive measures to deter Indian war ambitions under Cold Start strategy but Pakistan navy is clearly lagging behind in building adequate defenses. Unlike China and India, Pakistan Navy is a very small force with only one role; seaward Defense. But with changed geo-political and geo-strategic regional environment, it has become compulsion for Pakistan Navy to adopt “Sea Deterrence” role. Pakistan has no ambition of regional power projection but India clearly has. Apart from Indian threats, the way Pakistan has been portrayed as a source of international terrorism, in a ruthless and sinister media war and consequential warnings issued to Pakistan by US administration also demand a paradigm shift in strategic thinking of Pakistan Navy’s top brass while carrying out threat assessment. Clearly, Pakistan’s potential security threats have been expanded way beyond India. So enhancing its anti-ship, anti-submarine and sub-surface warfare capabilities becomes intrinsically mandatory to deny sea control to any hostile entity. Unfortunately, current strength of Pakistan Navy is not even adequate to fulfill its primary Defense role let alone sea deterrence. This is dangerous to say the least.

Current naval strength of Pakistan is described below in a comparison to its Indian counterpart;

Capability	Pakistan	India
Strength
	~24,000	~56,000
Surface Ships	~11	150
*Aircraft Carrier	Nil	1 active , (2 more to join in 2012)
Amphibious Assault Ships	Nil	1
Dock Landing Ship	1	19
Destroyers	Nil	8
Frigates	9 (Type 21 + F22 P)	13
Corvettes	Nil	24
Missile Boats	12	28
Mine Sweeper	3	8
Sub Surface fleet
Nuclear Powered Submarines	Nil	2
Conventional Submarines	5	13
Naval aviation	40	250
Strike Role Fighters	Mirage-V (ROSE ) from PAF	Mig-29K IN, SU-30 MKI and Jaguar from IAF
Maritime Surveillance	P3C Orion, Breguet-  -Atlantique I	Ilyushin Il-38, Tupolev Tu-142, P-8I, Kamov Ka-31
ASW platform	P3C- Orion , Sea King, F-27 Fokker, Z-9	Sea King, Kamov Ka-25, HS-6, Kamov Ka-25
Reconnaissance UAVs		INVAA Heron, IAI Searcher MkII

* 1 Aircraft Carrier is going to build more domestically. Currently, work on two carriers is underway at Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL). Indian project delayed due to Russian declined to provide AB/grade steel, a fundamental requirement of building a large naval ship. Indians are geared to commission their first home build 40,000 tons Air Craft Carrier by the end of second decade.

This one-sided balance of naval power proves that Pakistan navy is not equipped to defend its harbors, seaports while concurrently making sure that its sea lanes keep open. Traditionally, India always enjoys naval superiority both in quality and quantity over Pakistan Navy after 1965 war when Pakistan held Arabian Sea under its control by virtue of operating only submarine platform, PNS Ghazi, of that time in the war but it changed soon as Indian strategic planners realized their weaknesses and worked them out. India was first country in Asia to operate an aircraft carrier in 1971 though PN’s submarine fleet was still a headache for Indian Navy but once PNS Ghazi was sunk whole complexion of war changed dramatically.

This detail analysis of regional players draws following comparative picture of maritime balance of power in Indian Ocean.

Country	Category	Role / Ambition	Major Naval Strength
US	Blue Water Navy	Power Projection, Expedition 3 Ocean Navy	Aircraft carriers SSBM SSGN ASW EW, ECCM platform
India	Brown Water Navy (Large)	Power Projection Sea Denial To become Blue water till 2020	Limited SSBM SSGN Destroyers
China	Brown Water Navy (Large)	Power Projection Sea Lane Protection To become Blue water till 2015	SSBM SSGN Air Arm Long Range Anti-ship weapons
Iran	Brown Water Navy (Small)	Costal Defense	Large Quantity of small missile crafts
Pakistan	Brown Water Navy (Small)	Costal Defense	Frigate fleet

Pakistan had to pay a heavy price in 1971 war for not building adequate naval defenses. In East Pakistan, an area surrounded by India from three sides and having  Bay of Bengal on fourth, the damage inflicted by the Indian Navy and Indian Air Force on the PN stood at seven gunboats, one minesweeper, two destroyers, three patrol crafts belonging to the coast guard, 18 cargo, supply and communication vessels, and large scale damage inflicted on the naval base and docks in the coastal town of Karachi.

Losses from both sides are depicted in table below;

Type of Vessel	Indian Navy losses	Pakistan Navy losses
Destroyers	Nil	2 (PNS Kaibir, Shahjahan )
Frigates	1 ( INS Khukri)	Nil
Submarines	Nil	1 ( PNS Ghazi)
Minesweeper	Nil	1 (PNS Muhafiz)
Navy Aircraft	1, (Alize)	Nil
Patrol boats and Gunboats	Nil	7 Gunboats and 3 patrol boats
Merchant Navy and others	Nil	11 (including one US ammunition ship)
Loss on land	Nil	Missile attack on Karachi harbor and oil installations.

Unfortunately, current status of Pakistan Naval procurement proves that no lesson was learnt from 1971 war particularly the way deal of Type-214 submarine was ruined in 2008 in extremely suspicious circumstances. Likewise opportunities of having Spruance Class destroyer, for fleet air defense role, were turned down in 2005 and recent reports about Pakistan Navy putting Turkish deal of Milgem Corvettes on an indefinite hold are extremely annoying.

Pakistan will have to change current balance of maritime power in Arabian sea to secure its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Current status is unacceptable and cannot warranty of putting a decent fight before extinction let alone survival and victory. PN is going to pay for recent mismanagement of its acquisition programs. To adopt an effective sea denial role, some of short and long term recommendations are given below;

Recommendations

 

1. Ballistic missile and cruise missile capabilities are Pakistan’s most lethal and reliable strength to counter balance India’s naval build up in Arabian Sea. Pakistan Naval Strategic command must adopt surface to surface medium and short range ballistic missiles in a role against Indian Navy’s land based fixed assets like Naval bases, radar stations, dockyards and harbors.

An attack on main naval base like Mumbai or Cohin, during an event of war, can put a decisive philosophical scar on Indian navy’s morale. Pakistan naval bombardment on Dawarka radar station during 1965 war sent a powerful and aggressive signal to Indian navy. With a very small surface fleet, right now, Pakistan navy is in no position to undertake that kind of mission again in near future but ballistic missile capability enables Pakistan armed forces to strike at major Indian naval bases and harbors even preemptively without putting its navy into harm’s way. Land and air launched cruise missiles must be part of Navy’s aggressive doctrine to attack on enemy’s bases with sheer lethality. China is using its DF-21 missiles in anti-ship missile role against larger ships like aircraft carriers. Bottom line is that Pakistan must step up the production of its medium range ballistic missiles and some of the units must be integral part of Navy’s strategic force command with conventional warheads aimed at all major Indian naval bases.

2. Pakistan anti-Ship capabilities despite having lethal weapon systems like Harpoons and Exocet, are hindered due to limited numbers of surface and sub surface launching platforms (i.e. ships and submarines). Anti-ship and anti-submarine are the two most critical roles for any navy in the world. The deficiency of sea bound platforms can be overcome by building a strong naval air arm in strike role. Pakistan navy will have to add numbers new squadrons of JF-17 thunder equipped with C-802A missiles (Range: 180 KM). Current balance of naval aviation between Pakistan and India is heavily tilted in Indian favor. Current fleet of Mirage-V ROSE with AM-39 Exocet anti-ship missiles must be complemented by Thunders and C-802A combo. One major advantage of adding Thunders in naval role would be the economy of home grown solutions allowing Pakistan to raise more squadrons of JF-17 Thunders in naval aviation.

3. Building an impregnable naval defense is not possible without having a robust and modern state of the art submarine fleet. India is adding all latest conventional and non-conventional submarines in her naval fleet while Pakistan’s submarine fleet is depleting fast. Pakistan does not need any SSBN or SSGN but even in conventional submarine arena, Pakistan submarine fleet is weakest link in naval defenses with just 3 reliable and relatively modern Agosta 90-B submarines. Pakistan desperately need to expand its submarine force to 12 advanced diesel and half of them must be modern submarines built on proven technologies.

Pakistan Navy could not execute the submarine acquisition plan devised by SMAP due to malevolent intents by compromised elements both in political and naval establishment. German build Type-214 subs were recommended after years of evaluation work. Prior to this, deal of Agosta-90B, in 1994, also met with charges of corruption and kickbacks which turned true when investigated. An inquiry in France is underway in this regard. India is building its submarine fleet with conventional and non-conventional platforms while Pakistani decision makers remain oblivious. It must be remembered that wars are fought with conventional weapons on submarines, not nuclear weapons. It is the duty of the conventionally armed subs to advance and engage. Nuclear subs avoid the conventional threats and wait in stealth for second strike capability. Pakistan needs more conventional submarines for active defense.

Under the pressure of US, now Germany and France, both have backed out and Pakistan Navy has practically lost the opportunity to induct one of the most potent sub surface platform that could have provide Pakistan Navy with real sea denial capabilities vis-à-vis Indian Navy.

But this damage can be still manageable by acquiring platform available like German Type 209/Mod 1400 submarines from Turkey or second hand but proven Agosta-70 platform can be acquired from Spain or Brazil. These platforms can be modified with modern combat suits and weapon systems. Type-209 is in use with 13 navies worldwide so spare and training must be no problem.

Pak-China cooperation is very critical as China remains only reliable military partner of Pakistan. Pakistan Navy has no experience of using Chinese sub surface platforms and as now Pakistan Navy is going to acquire Chinese platform, Pakistan should request PLAN to detach some of its Song class subs to train Pakistani sailors and officers. For any Chinese origin platform it must be ensured that it strictly meet PN requirements. A joint venture program can serve best just like JF-17 Thunder did for PAF.

Maritime defense pact with China is a must where we can allow China to have Naval bases on our shores to counterbalance hostile threats.  

Pakistan Navy must also increase its naval cooperation with Iran as Iran is entering into submarine building arena with Qaeem class submarines. Prior to that, Iran already has built Nahang 1 and Ghadir class subs.

On geo-strategic level, Pakistan, China and Iran must form a maritime alliance as mutual interests converge in Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. But to enter any such regional security arrangement, Pakistan will have to isolate herself from US war on terror and MNNA status given to Pakistan by US.

4. Absence of area defense destroyers is another weak area of Pakistan Navy which needs to be strengthened on war footing. With induction of MIG-29Ks in Indian Navy it is necessary for Pakistan Navy to have this crucial capability to prevent IN’s naval arm from establishing air superiority. In this regard, Chinese platform with HQ-9 SAM, based on proven Russian S-300, can be a good start. PN personnel can work out with their Chinese counterparts to finalize specifications.

5. Pakistan must increase its cooperation with Turkey in Naval warfare. Recently, Turkey offered Pakistan Navy with GENESIS system for Perry class frigate which PN is going to acquire from US. Pakistan Navy must seal this important deal as GENESIS would provide some aerial defense capabilities to PN surface fleet with its SM2 missile. Pakistan Navy is also engaged with Turkey with Milgem corvette program which is one of most critical program right now to enhance surface fleet capabilities.

Final Thoughts

Current baleful, noxious and precarious geostrategic environment in the region has threatened Pakistan security interests like never before. Clash of interests among regional players is predominately outrageous turning high seas, littoral nations across the Asia and eventually whole Indian Ocean an active battlefield whereupon Pakistan Navy looks extremely really weak in surface, sub surface and naval aviation keeping India’s ambitious naval build up in and around Arabian Sea, both in qualitative and numerical terms.

While the noose around Pakistan are being tightened on every axis of national security, Pakistan’s political leadership and successive naval top brasses remained obscured and debilitated while making critical decisions of inducting new maritime platforms in Pakistan Navy. This indecisiveness potentially could endanger entire coastline of Pakistan. Due to lack of any strategic depth between Eastern and Western borders, the coastline, Stretching from East to West, in the South cannot be left unguarded at any cost!!

Pakistan Navy is the most neglected arm of the armed forces at the moment. It is from this flank that Pakistan is most vulnerable. Those, in government and in establishment, responsible for bringing about this dangerous state of affairs, are guilty of compromising Pakistan’s security. In the time of war, bravest sons of this nation, serving in Navy, would needlessly be harmed for the blunders of the rulers today. We still have time to correct this dangerous imbalance; otherwise, history neither forgets nor forgives. Neither would we.

(End)