THE GLOBE AND MAIL, (TORONTO), OCTOBER 20, 1971
Editorial
ASIA AT FLASH POINT
Relations between India and Pakistan are now at flash point, and a stray shot anywhere along the border of the two countries could precipitate a disastrous war. Such a war would instantly threaten to involve the two super-powers of Asia. Russia and China. Even if that extreme danger were avoided, the consequences of the war for these principal countries of the Indian sub-continent, and their peoples, would be devastating beyond description. Can nothing be done to stop this tragedy?
At this stage, there is no point in apportioning blame between the two countries. Their quarrels go back to the beginnings of their independence in the partition of British India; that these problems persist is not primarily due to more than the normal amount of human folly in Indian and Pakistani leadership. It is obvious, however, that the present crisis is beyond the capacities of both countries to resolve. For India, the immediate problem is the flood of refugees from East Pakistan. Indian authorities estimate the total at nine million. Even Pakistani spokesmen admit to four or five million. In either case their maintenance imposes an unacceptable burden on the Indian economy, costing more than 5 percent of government expenditure, and much more than all the foreign economic aid India is receiving.
The flow of refugees continues, and virtually none of them will contemplate returning to Pakistan under present conditions. India grows desperate and moves steadily closer-for more general foreign policy reasons as well to action aimed at dismembering Pakistan and establishing an independent Bangladesh in the East.
President Yahya Khan of Pakistan has plainly got his Government into an impossible position with his misguided attempt to use military force to suppress the autonomist movement in the country’s eastern province. Yet there is some truth in the Pakistani claim that some force was necessary against revolutionary excesses in the first stage of the crisis. Now he is showing signs of looking again for a political solution. It remains doubtful whether the solution can be found that will both restore peace and security in East Pakistan, and preserve some semblance of integrity of the country as a whole. But certainly much more time is needed, and a war at present would ruin every hope.
What is need now to avert ultimate disaster is some means to take the refugee burden off India’s backed. This puts the responsibility squarely on the 13-nation World Bank consortium (including Canada) that has been channeling economic aid to India. At a meeting on October 26 in Paris, the consortium will be asked to raise $750 million immediately to help pay for India’s refugee programme. More will be needed later. The price is high, but the cost to the world of the likely alternative would be incalculable.